Berlin — Germany heads to the polls this Sunday in one of its most politically charged elections in recent memory. Traditionally known for predictable and calm campaigns, this year’s race is defined by fierce debates over immigration, a struggling economy, and a surging far-right party drawing unusual backing from figures in the Trump administration.
The world’s third-largest economy is at a crossroads. Recent street attacks — including one at Berlin’s Holocaust memorial on Friday — have intensified national discussions on immigration and security. At the same time, sluggish economic growth, energy insecurity, and shifting alliances are pushing voters to reconsider Germany’s political direction.
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Merz Leads but Faces Tough Challenges
Friedrich Merz, 69, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is the frontrunner for chancellor. Known for his measured demeanor and pro-business agenda, Merz has promised to cut bureaucracy, lower corporate taxes, and strengthen border controls. Critics say these immigration policies mirror those of his hard-right rivals.
Merz has also voiced skepticism about Germany’s long-term relationship with the United States, warning of potential instability in American politics. “It may be that America will enter a longer period of instability and that this populism… will continue for a longer period of time,” he said during a campaign stop in Darmstadt.
His main rival is incumbent Olaf Scholz, 66, of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Scholz has struggled to address post-pandemic economic challenges and the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Polls show the SPD trailing at just 16%, compared to the CDU’s 28%.
The Rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The real disruptor in this election is Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right, anti-immigration party polling at 21% — more than double its 2021 results. Led by Alice Weidel, 46, the AfD is under surveillance by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency for suspected extremism. The party rejects the “far-right” label, framing itself as a defender of national identity against “mass migration.”
AfD support is especially strong in areas with low immigration rates, driven by perceptions of cultural change in urban centers. “We want nothing other than being German, to preserve our culture,” said Joachim Steyer, a local AfD lawmaker.
The AfD’s rise reflects a wider European trend, where nationalist parties are making gains at the expense of traditional political forces. Despite endorsements from Trump allies like Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance, analysts say the AfD’s growth predates foreign backing.
Coalition Politics and the Firewall
Germany’s proportional voting system makes it rare for a single party to govern alone, forcing coalition-building after elections. Possible alliances include a CDU-Green partnership or a “Grand Coalition” (GroKo) between the CDU and SPD — an arrangement used multiple times during Angela Merkel’s tenure.
However, a decades-old “firewall” policy means other parties refuse to work with the AfD, making a coalition involving them highly unlikely. If excluded, the AfD could become the main opposition, further amplifying its voice in parliament.
Coalition talks can drag on for months. Scholz’s outgoing “traffic light” coalition of the SPD, Greens, and pro-business Free Democrats collapsed over budget disputes, prompting Sunday’s snap election.
Economic Pressures and Energy Shifts
Germany’s once-dominant industrial economy is now under strain. The loss of cheap Russian natural gas has driven up energy costs, while competition from China’s affordable, high-quality electric vehicles threatens the country’s automotive sector.
Merz and other leaders face the challenge of stimulating growth while managing rising defense spending. NATO allies have long urged Germany to meet — and now exceed — military budget targets. However, higher defense spending risks further stressing public finances.
Security and Transatlantic Relations
Since World War II, Germany has relied on the U.S. for military protection, with American troops stationed on its soil as part of NATO’s deterrence strategy. Under former President Donald Trump, that security guarantee has come into question. Merz has openly wondered whether Washington will remain a reliable partner.
“Eight weeks ago I would not have dared to ask this question, but today we have to give an answer to it,” Merz said, reflecting a growing unease about U.S. commitment to European security.
Public Sentiment and the AfD Debate
Supporters see the AfD as a voice for cultural preservation and a check on political conformity. Opponents warn that its rise threatens democratic norms and social cohesion. Marina Weisband, a democracy advocate, said, “We think it’s unthinkable that fascism could return to Europe, but it has — it’s here. The established parties have no answers.”
The AfD’s critics argue that its rhetoric exploits fears over immigration and social change, while offering limited policy solutions to economic and geopolitical challenges.
Election Day and Beyond
Polling stations (“Wahllokale”) will open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time (2 a.m.–12 p.m. ET) on Sunday. Exit polls released immediately after will give the first clues about the final results, which will be confirmed overnight.
The results will set the tone not only for Germany’s domestic agenda but also for its role in Europe and the wider world. If the AfD secures a strong second-place finish, even without entering government, it could reshape the political landscape and force mainstream parties to address its growing influence.
A Pivotal Moment for Germany
As the election approaches, Germany faces a rare combination of political fragmentation, economic strain, and shifting alliances. The CDU may lead the next government, but its policies — especially on immigration, foreign relations, and economic reform — will be shaped by coalition negotiations and the rising voice of the far right.
For many voters, this election feels like a choice between preserving Germany’s postwar political stability and embracing a new, more confrontational era in which nationalist voices demand a seat at the table.
Whichever path emerges, Sunday’s vote is likely to mark a turning point — not only for Germany but for the balance of power in Europe.
Frequently Asked Questions:
When is Germany’s 2025 federal election taking place?
The election is scheduled for Sunday, with polling stations open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time.
Who is the frontrunner to become Germany’s next chancellor?
Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is currently leading in the polls.
What are the main issues dominating the election campaign?
Immigration, economic stagnation, national security, and Germany’s relationship with the United States are the key topics driving debates.
Why is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining support?
The AfD’s rise is fueled by concerns over immigration, cultural change, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
Will the AfD be part of the next government?
Due to Germany’s “firewall” policy, mainstream parties refuse to form coalitions with the AfD, making it unlikely they will join the government despite strong polling.
How is Germany’s economy performing ahead of the election?
The economy is under pressure from high energy costs, slower exports, and competition from countries like China in key industries such as automotive manufacturing.
What role does the United States play in Germany’s security policy?
The U.S. has long provided military protection through NATO, but recent political shifts in Washington have raised doubts about future commitments.
Conclusion
Germany’s upcoming election is more than a routine political contest — it is a defining moment for the country’s future direction. With immigration and a fragile economy dominating the campaign, and the far-right AfD gaining unprecedented momentum, the vote will test the strength of Germany’s postwar political traditions and its commitment to democratic values.
